Rumors Abound

Sometime last last night, rumors emerged that upon completion of the three way trade agreed to in principle by the Yankees, Diamondbacks, and Dodgers the White Sox will acquire Javier Vazquez from Los Angeles. The intensity with which Kenny Williams has supposedly pursued Vazquez, a tremendous pitcher who is theoretically undervalued at this point in light of a poor second half for the Yankees, has both suprised and impressed me throughout the offseason. However, two somewhat problematic issues emerge in acquiring Vazquez. First, an average of $12 million dollars a year for three more seasons is a large sum of money to pay a pitcher coming off a down season. While earlier three way trade proposals involving the Yankees, Diamondbacks, and White Sox included cash from New York, the current three team deal includes Yankees prospects Dioner Navarro and Eric Duncan, precluding the inclusion of money to cover a portion of Vazquez's salary. The Dodgers do not figure to send money to the Sox in the event a trade for Vazquez is in fact consummated. $12 million dollars a season is not an unreasonable figure for a legitimate ace who figures to rebound in '05 particularly in light of some of the mind boggling signings this offseason. However, paying Tim Hudson $13 or 14 million dollars over the course of a three year deal next offseason would involve far less risk albeit less upside as well.

The second complication with a trade for Vazquez is the talent the White Sox would be asked to surrender in return. Most print rumors have the Sox offering Paul Konerko, Jon Garland, and Damasso Marte in return for Vazquez. Needless to say, this would be a horrific deal for the White Sox. While moving Konerko and his $ 9.25 million dollar salary coming off of what figures to be the first baseman's best season is a sensible move, including Garland and Marte in the deal is overkill. Even if Vazquez replicates his best season with Montreal in a Sox uniform, using Baseball Prospectus' metrics, the team would be trading away a total of fourteen Wins Above Replacement (five a piece from Garland and Konerko, four from Marte) from '04 while receiving only nine or ten WARP in return. While Garland receives a lot of flak from White Sox fans for failing to develop into Kevin Brown, he has become an exceedingly valuable innings eater at the back of the rotation and once luck and park effects are factored into the equation, his dissapointing '04 season closely resembles his solid '03. Acquiring Vazquez at the expense of Garland while also plugging a sub replacement level Jason Grilli into the rotation and losing the team's most reliable hitter and reliever would decimate the Sox 2005 season.

A second variation of the deal originating at Soxtalk.com and purportedly based on a report from WFAN 66 AM in New York includes only Konerko and prospects in return for Vazquez. A deal allowing the Sox to add Vazquez at a price of only Konerko and prospects is far more promising. While the team would still struggle to score runs while fielding perhaps the worst lineup in baseball, at two years younger than Konerko, a revitalized Vazquez figures to be of more value to the club over the next several seasons. The downside of this deal is Paul DePodesta acquiring prospects from Kenny Williams and the White Sox. Williams has shown an extreme willingness to part with prospects in return for veterans in recent seasons and DePo is bound to press for the inclusion of the unreal Brandon McCarthy in the deal. After cruising through the Sally League, the Carolina League, and concluding the season in AA while improving throughout the season and finishing with a ungodly 202 to 30 K/BB ratio, McCarthy must be considered one of the top pitching prospects in the game. Unfortunately for the White Sox, Depodesta has proven himself to be both more intelligent than Ken Williams and more appreciative of stellar performance based results resembling those generated by McCarthy than the White Sox front office. Even in the event Sox fans escape the more widely publisized trade rumor of Garland, Konerko, and Marte for Vazquez, a second bullet must be dodged in the form of the Sox refusal to include McCarthy (and hopefully Brian Anderson, Ryan Sweeney, and Chris Young as well) in a deal for Vazquez. Sadly, if either trade rumor has legs in the end, Kenny Williams figures to entrench his status as the laughing stock of baseball in the next 24 hours.