Here we go again?
According to the Chicago Tribune, Kenny Williams is willing to deal Brandon McCarthy and Damaso Marte for A.J. Burnett provided the club is allowed a 72 hour window to resign Burnett. This is a deal largely similar to the Freddy Garcia trade I detailed in my last two entries. My mantra remains more or less the same in this case. A 72 hour window to resign Burnett is nice but it doesn't mean he will sign for peanuts, he and his agent will still demand at least 8 million dollars a year which is not chump change. I'm all about Jerry Reinsdorf adding more payroll but a starting rotation with Buehrle making 7.75 million, Garcia making 9 million, Contreras making 7 million (?), El Duque making 4 million, and Garland well on his way to 20 wins and arbitration eligible (figure at least 5 or 6 million) is a very expensive rotation. The reason I scoff at the 72 hour window a bit is that somewhat like the Garcia deal there's absolutely no reason to believe the Sox would have a better chance of signing Burnett in the 72 hour window than they would in the off season. In fact, you could argue that with such a limited amount of time the club's odds of signing Burnett are actually worse.
My two largest problems are the fact that I don't think another starting pitcher is particularly valuable to the club at this point and that trading McCarthy for a rent a player is a considerable mistake. I said in my last entry that I don't believe dealing a top 10 prospect for a rent a player is ever an acceptable move and in response to a comment authored by Flight I wrote that I believe trading a top 30 prospect for a rent a player is borderline disastrous. Brandon McCarthy may not be a top ten prospect at this point but he's certainly a top 30 prospect. He's no doubt had a disappointing season evidenced by several disastrous starts with the big league club. However, we're still talking about a pitcher who reached AAA at a very young age (21), most likely would not have spend the season in Charlotte and the big leagues if not for an outstanding spring which earned him universal praise, and only has one legitimate flaw (allowing the long ball). I'll be the first to admit, allowing 22 home runs in 122.2 innings is terrifying but Charlotte (and the Cell for that matter) is a band box, McCarthy is still very young, he'd only pitched 4 games above A ball prior to this season, and his K/BB ratio is an outstanding 111/30 this season. Barring injury (which is a significant concern for a young pitcher) this kid should be a very solid major leaguer at the worst.
A huge problem here is that the Sox don't have much use for another starter. First of all, adding another starter presumably means the club will be paying a pitcher at least four million dollars to pitch long relief which is mind boggling for a club that is by no means the Yankees or Red Sox in terms of payroll. The most important consideration is that with the second best team ERA in baseball, how much value could a starting pitcher - even one of Burnett's caliber - actually add to the team? The team's worst starter is Hernandez but apparently now healthy and tossing a solid 6.2 IP 2 ER tonight, he really doesn't appear to be much of a liability at this point. I'm not a Jose Contreras fan by any means but with a 4.34 ERA it's hard to argue he isn't a capable fourth starter and therefore belongs in the pen. My concern is that an additional starter will be of little to no value to the club for the duration of the season under the team's current circumstances. With a 11.5 game lead and a .529 third order win percentage , BP's Postseason Odd's report pegs the ChiSox with over a 95% chance of reaching the playoffs through 5/22. That suggests that virtually no player the Sox could add between now and the trade deadline will substantially increase the team's chances of reaching the postseason since a playoff birth is more or less guaranteed.
It seems unlikely that an additional starter is going to have any large effect on the team's playoff success either. First and most importantly, most teams start just 3-4 pitchers in a playoff series. The White Sox currently have three of the five best starters in the American League. The first question is "How much better is A.J. Burnett than Contreras or Hernandez?" Burnett is a very good pitcher and no doubt substantially better than either of those two players but most perhaps not leaps and bounds better. More importantly , how much more confident can you be that Burnett will be far better than the two Cubans over the course of 1-5 games. Assuming a new starter slots into the fourth spot (it'd be really difficult to demote any of the current top three guys), he'd pitch at most five games in the playoffs assuming the team doesn't pitch anyone on short rest, there aren't enough off days in between playoffs games to allow a fourth starter to be skipped, and the team plays four games in the ALDS and wins, plays 7 games in the ALCS and wins, and plays 7 games in the World Series. Obviously as much as I love the White Sox that sequence of events is highly unlikely. Furthermore, when we're dealing with a maximum of five games you must consider the fact that virtually anything could happen. Certainly the odds are frighteningly high that even Jose Lima let alone Jose Contreras could out pitch a much better pitcher such as Burnett over a span of 5 games. Selling a key piece of the club's future for 12 regular season starts, a 1-5 post season starts, and a slightly improved chance at resigning a player for what may be a poor value would certainly be an enormous mistake on the part of the organization.
My two largest problems are the fact that I don't think another starting pitcher is particularly valuable to the club at this point and that trading McCarthy for a rent a player is a considerable mistake. I said in my last entry that I don't believe dealing a top 10 prospect for a rent a player is ever an acceptable move and in response to a comment authored by Flight I wrote that I believe trading a top 30 prospect for a rent a player is borderline disastrous. Brandon McCarthy may not be a top ten prospect at this point but he's certainly a top 30 prospect. He's no doubt had a disappointing season evidenced by several disastrous starts with the big league club. However, we're still talking about a pitcher who reached AAA at a very young age (21), most likely would not have spend the season in Charlotte and the big leagues if not for an outstanding spring which earned him universal praise, and only has one legitimate flaw (allowing the long ball). I'll be the first to admit, allowing 22 home runs in 122.2 innings is terrifying but Charlotte (and the Cell for that matter) is a band box, McCarthy is still very young, he'd only pitched 4 games above A ball prior to this season, and his K/BB ratio is an outstanding 111/30 this season. Barring injury (which is a significant concern for a young pitcher) this kid should be a very solid major leaguer at the worst.
A huge problem here is that the Sox don't have much use for another starter. First of all, adding another starter presumably means the club will be paying a pitcher at least four million dollars to pitch long relief which is mind boggling for a club that is by no means the Yankees or Red Sox in terms of payroll. The most important consideration is that with the second best team ERA in baseball, how much value could a starting pitcher - even one of Burnett's caliber - actually add to the team? The team's worst starter is Hernandez but apparently now healthy and tossing a solid 6.2 IP 2 ER tonight, he really doesn't appear to be much of a liability at this point. I'm not a Jose Contreras fan by any means but with a 4.34 ERA it's hard to argue he isn't a capable fourth starter and therefore belongs in the pen. My concern is that an additional starter will be of little to no value to the club for the duration of the season under the team's current circumstances. With a 11.5 game lead and a .529 third order win percentage , BP's Postseason Odd's report pegs the ChiSox with over a 95% chance of reaching the playoffs through 5/22. That suggests that virtually no player the Sox could add between now and the trade deadline will substantially increase the team's chances of reaching the postseason since a playoff birth is more or less guaranteed.
It seems unlikely that an additional starter is going to have any large effect on the team's playoff success either. First and most importantly, most teams start just 3-4 pitchers in a playoff series. The White Sox currently have three of the five best starters in the American League. The first question is "How much better is A.J. Burnett than Contreras or Hernandez?" Burnett is a very good pitcher and no doubt substantially better than either of those two players but most perhaps not leaps and bounds better. More importantly , how much more confident can you be that Burnett will be far better than the two Cubans over the course of 1-5 games. Assuming a new starter slots into the fourth spot (it'd be really difficult to demote any of the current top three guys), he'd pitch at most five games in the playoffs assuming the team doesn't pitch anyone on short rest, there aren't enough off days in between playoffs games to allow a fourth starter to be skipped, and the team plays four games in the ALDS and wins, plays 7 games in the ALCS and wins, and plays 7 games in the World Series. Obviously as much as I love the White Sox that sequence of events is highly unlikely. Furthermore, when we're dealing with a maximum of five games you must consider the fact that virtually anything could happen. Certainly the odds are frighteningly high that even Jose Lima let alone Jose Contreras could out pitch a much better pitcher such as Burnett over a span of 5 games. Selling a key piece of the club's future for 12 regular season starts, a 1-5 post season starts, and a slightly improved chance at resigning a player for what may be a poor value would certainly be an enormous mistake on the part of the organization.
posted by Jeremy @ 12:18 AM
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