Prospect Hot List
Two months since a post. Yikes. My apologies.
With the All-Star Break approaching, I want to take a look at some of the most exciting and surprising performances by White Sox minor leaguers this season. The list is not intended to be a top prospects list but instead simlar to Baseball America's Prospect Hot List. While Brandon McCarthy no doubt remains the club's best prospect, his performance has been undeniably disappointing this season so he won't find a spot on the list.
1. Chris Young
For a 21 year old skipping advanced A ball, Young's performance has been nothing short of brilliant. His numbers may not stand out at first glance but his plate discipline and spectacular power elevate what are otherwise so so numbers. Young has walked 42 times in 366 plate appearances putting him on pace for around 80 free passes over the course of a 162 game season. Perhaps most impressive are the extra base hits Young's bat has yielded. While most can recognize that a .525 slugging percentage is an indication of good power, Young's slugging percentage is astounding when examined in context. Slugging percentage is calculated by dividing total bases by at bats, meaning the ability to hit for average contributes substantially to a player's slugging percentage. Pure power can be measured more accurately by subtracting batting average from slugging percentage to create a statistic referred to as isolated power (ISO). So while Moises Alou is slugging over .500 on the season (.514 to be exact) his .321 batting average heavily contributes to that figure. A whopping ISO of .267 tells us that Young is hitting for far more power relative to his number of hits than someone like Alou (.193 ISO). An ISO above .200 is considered excellent so Young is more or less off the charts if not quite in Adam Dunn (.315 ISO in 2005) or Barry Bonds (a mind blowing .311 over the course of his career) territory. To further understand Young's potency at the plate, consider the fact that of his 81 hits 48 have been for extra bases and Young has hit just three fewer doubles than singles! Combine this power with strong plate discipline, youth, speed (15 stolen bases in 19 attempts), purportedly outstanding athleticism, and the ability to play a defense oriented position (center field) and Young should have a very bright future in the organization.
2. Gio Gonzalez
94 strikeouts against just 22 walks with only 5 home runs allowed in 66.1 innings and a promotion to High A at 19, need I say more? Pray for continued good health.
3. Charles Haeger
Haeger exploded out of nowhere to post a 3.20 ERA at Winston Salem and earn a promotion to Birmingham at the tender age of 21. Believe it or not Haeger, drafted out of a Michigan high school in the 25th round of the 2001 draft as a 17 year old, actually quit baseball in 2003 on the heels of two unimpressive seasons in rookie ball. In 2004 Haeger returned to the organization armed with the decision to rediscover his old friend, the knuckleball. Haeger was hardly dominant in Bristol last season but seems to become comfortable with the pitch this year, baffling hitters with the knuckler and a mid 80s fastball. While Charlie's 75/45 K/BB rate is nothing to drool over, knuckle ball pitchers are the rare breed of pitcher able to limit the number of hits allowed on balls in play and can therefore succeed with tepid strikeout rates. Furthermore knuckle balls are extremely difficult to hit for home runs as evidenced by the fact that Haeger has allowed just 3 (!) long balls in 101.2 innings. Sabermetricians have theorized that since it takes most knucklers until their mid to late 20s to master the pitch and reach the show, the ability of a pitcher as young as Haeger to advance to the high minors is remarkable and suggests a high ceiling. The community is slightly less willing to embrace this logic after the theory's poster boy Charlie Zink (who oddly enough shares Haeger's surname) bombed as a 24 year old in AA last season. Have no fear though, if Haeger continues to even remotely resemble the dominant pitcher who has showed up for his first three AA starts (2.25 ERA, 18 hits in 20 IP) people will begin to take notice in a hurry.
4. Daniel Haigwood
Riding strong if not immaculate peripherals (84 K's, 33 BB's, 8 HR's in 76.1 IP) at Winston Salem, Haigwood is finally cashing in on the promise he showed in 2002 and 2004 (2003 was lost to a knee injury). His recent promotion to AA adds yet another exciting 21 year old to Birmingham's roster.
5. Casey Rogowski
A .319 average and 22 doubles in 330 plate appearances at AA certainly jumps off the page. The reason Rogowski is not higher on the list is there are some question marks surrounding his performance. For starters, the hulking Rogowski (6'3, 230) is playing as though a much smaller man inhabits his body (just 6 HR's, 19 stolen bases attempted with 12 successes). Furthermore, due to injuries and dawdling on the part of the organization, Rogo is already 24 years old, a tad mature for a prospect's first exposure to AA. Perhaps most disappointing, while Rogowski's average is up 33 points from last season his on base percentage is actually down 11 points with his walks - his previous strongsuit - on pace to fall from 91 last year to around 60 this season. There is certainly cause for optimism with anyone hitting the way Rogo has this season but that optimism needs to be tempered when Casey's half season is examined in context.
Honorable Mention:
Micah Schnurstein
I must confess to some skepticism regarding Phil Rogers' tendency to throw Schnurstein's name around when discussing prospects to watch in the White Sox system the last few years. Well, Phil seems to have once again proven he knows what he's talking about. After two disappointing seasons following his impressive 200 at bat rookie league debut in 2002, Micah has put together a solid first half. Schnurstein's walk rate is still not something to write home about but has improved to respectable levels this season with 26 walks in 303 plate appearances. Furthermore, Micah has turned some of his doubles into long balls with a 20 home run pace set to obliviate his previous high of six. Still a youngin' at a week shy of 21, if Schnurstein continues to rachet up the power and plate discipline he should quickly pass Josh Fields in the race to replace Joe Crede and his appalling .303 career on base percentage.
Robert Valido
Who is Robert Valido? The player who hit .307/.364/.479 in his rookie league debut and is currently hitting .313/.360/.429 as a 20 year old in Winston Salem or a steroids offender who flailed to the tune of .252/.313/.333 at Kannapolis last season? With Juan Uribe failing to reproduce the magic of last season, Sox fans are praying for the latter. Valido's plate discipline and power are uninspiring but if he can continue to hit for a high average and his fielding is as good as rumored there's some cause for excitement.
With the All-Star Break approaching, I want to take a look at some of the most exciting and surprising performances by White Sox minor leaguers this season. The list is not intended to be a top prospects list but instead simlar to Baseball America's Prospect Hot List. While Brandon McCarthy no doubt remains the club's best prospect, his performance has been undeniably disappointing this season so he won't find a spot on the list.
1. Chris Young
For a 21 year old skipping advanced A ball, Young's performance has been nothing short of brilliant. His numbers may not stand out at first glance but his plate discipline and spectacular power elevate what are otherwise so so numbers. Young has walked 42 times in 366 plate appearances putting him on pace for around 80 free passes over the course of a 162 game season. Perhaps most impressive are the extra base hits Young's bat has yielded. While most can recognize that a .525 slugging percentage is an indication of good power, Young's slugging percentage is astounding when examined in context. Slugging percentage is calculated by dividing total bases by at bats, meaning the ability to hit for average contributes substantially to a player's slugging percentage. Pure power can be measured more accurately by subtracting batting average from slugging percentage to create a statistic referred to as isolated power (ISO). So while Moises Alou is slugging over .500 on the season (.514 to be exact) his .321 batting average heavily contributes to that figure. A whopping ISO of .267 tells us that Young is hitting for far more power relative to his number of hits than someone like Alou (.193 ISO). An ISO above .200 is considered excellent so Young is more or less off the charts if not quite in Adam Dunn (.315 ISO in 2005) or Barry Bonds (a mind blowing .311 over the course of his career) territory. To further understand Young's potency at the plate, consider the fact that of his 81 hits 48 have been for extra bases and Young has hit just three fewer doubles than singles! Combine this power with strong plate discipline, youth, speed (15 stolen bases in 19 attempts), purportedly outstanding athleticism, and the ability to play a defense oriented position (center field) and Young should have a very bright future in the organization.
2. Gio Gonzalez
94 strikeouts against just 22 walks with only 5 home runs allowed in 66.1 innings and a promotion to High A at 19, need I say more? Pray for continued good health.
3. Charles Haeger
Haeger exploded out of nowhere to post a 3.20 ERA at Winston Salem and earn a promotion to Birmingham at the tender age of 21. Believe it or not Haeger, drafted out of a Michigan high school in the 25th round of the 2001 draft as a 17 year old, actually quit baseball in 2003 on the heels of two unimpressive seasons in rookie ball. In 2004 Haeger returned to the organization armed with the decision to rediscover his old friend, the knuckleball. Haeger was hardly dominant in Bristol last season but seems to become comfortable with the pitch this year, baffling hitters with the knuckler and a mid 80s fastball. While Charlie's 75/45 K/BB rate is nothing to drool over, knuckle ball pitchers are the rare breed of pitcher able to limit the number of hits allowed on balls in play and can therefore succeed with tepid strikeout rates. Furthermore knuckle balls are extremely difficult to hit for home runs as evidenced by the fact that Haeger has allowed just 3 (!) long balls in 101.2 innings. Sabermetricians have theorized that since it takes most knucklers until their mid to late 20s to master the pitch and reach the show, the ability of a pitcher as young as Haeger to advance to the high minors is remarkable and suggests a high ceiling. The community is slightly less willing to embrace this logic after the theory's poster boy Charlie Zink (who oddly enough shares Haeger's surname) bombed as a 24 year old in AA last season. Have no fear though, if Haeger continues to even remotely resemble the dominant pitcher who has showed up for his first three AA starts (2.25 ERA, 18 hits in 20 IP) people will begin to take notice in a hurry.
4. Daniel Haigwood
Riding strong if not immaculate peripherals (84 K's, 33 BB's, 8 HR's in 76.1 IP) at Winston Salem, Haigwood is finally cashing in on the promise he showed in 2002 and 2004 (2003 was lost to a knee injury). His recent promotion to AA adds yet another exciting 21 year old to Birmingham's roster.
5. Casey Rogowski
A .319 average and 22 doubles in 330 plate appearances at AA certainly jumps off the page. The reason Rogowski is not higher on the list is there are some question marks surrounding his performance. For starters, the hulking Rogowski (6'3, 230) is playing as though a much smaller man inhabits his body (just 6 HR's, 19 stolen bases attempted with 12 successes). Furthermore, due to injuries and dawdling on the part of the organization, Rogo is already 24 years old, a tad mature for a prospect's first exposure to AA. Perhaps most disappointing, while Rogowski's average is up 33 points from last season his on base percentage is actually down 11 points with his walks - his previous strongsuit - on pace to fall from 91 last year to around 60 this season. There is certainly cause for optimism with anyone hitting the way Rogo has this season but that optimism needs to be tempered when Casey's half season is examined in context.
Honorable Mention:
Micah Schnurstein
I must confess to some skepticism regarding Phil Rogers' tendency to throw Schnurstein's name around when discussing prospects to watch in the White Sox system the last few years. Well, Phil seems to have once again proven he knows what he's talking about. After two disappointing seasons following his impressive 200 at bat rookie league debut in 2002, Micah has put together a solid first half. Schnurstein's walk rate is still not something to write home about but has improved to respectable levels this season with 26 walks in 303 plate appearances. Furthermore, Micah has turned some of his doubles into long balls with a 20 home run pace set to obliviate his previous high of six. Still a youngin' at a week shy of 21, if Schnurstein continues to rachet up the power and plate discipline he should quickly pass Josh Fields in the race to replace Joe Crede and his appalling .303 career on base percentage.
Robert Valido
Who is Robert Valido? The player who hit .307/.364/.479 in his rookie league debut and is currently hitting .313/.360/.429 as a 20 year old in Winston Salem or a steroids offender who flailed to the tune of .252/.313/.333 at Kannapolis last season? With Juan Uribe failing to reproduce the magic of last season, Sox fans are praying for the latter. Valido's plate discipline and power are uninspiring but if he can continue to hit for a high average and his fielding is as good as rumored there's some cause for excitement.
posted by Jeremy @ 9:47 AM
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