Yikes...
Five months without an update has clearly robbed this space of the minimal legitimacy it once possessed. That is without evening mentioning the fact that by far the most historic White Sox moment in my lifetime occurred during that time span. Much like a cheating husband crawling back to his wife for the upteenth time, I refuse to promise things will be different from here on out because past experience emphatically suggests otherwise. However, I will state that I sincerely hope to update the blog with more frequency and that I fully expect to have more free time to discuss the World Champions in the near future.
I would be remiss if I did not spend this rare entry discussing the most momentous White Sox transaction since at least the Scott Podsednik for Carlos Lee deal last offseason. In what is perhaps an attempt to be more diplomatic in my assessment of Kenny Williams' moves, I will proceed to address both the good and bad aspects of this trade. While, as usual, I have substantial concerns about this trade, there several highly admirable qualities of this maneuver for which Williams must be congratulated.
The Good:
1) Jim Thome has been a tremendous player throughout his career. It is highly encouraging to know that Williams appreciates Thome's skill set. With all the talk of small ball, grinders, and speed last season it is a massive relief that Kenny was able to both identify and properly value the club's weakness and Thome's strength: the ability to work the count. Overemphasizing Thome's strikeouts and mediocre batting average demonstrates an intense inability to read between the lines and understand the finer points of the game. Thome's career .408 on base percentage and .556 slugging percentage speak for themselves and leave no doubt the man has been one of the four or five best hitters in the game over the last decade. Admittedly, the gamble here is Thome's ability to bounce back from a trying, injury plagued season at age 35. Regardless of the outcome, however, the fact that Williams has displayed a genuine appreciation of his game is important.
2) Convincing a team to pay a player over 20 million dollars to be a member of a different team is highly impressive. Obtaining half a player's salary is a major feat even when you're dealing with someone like Mike Hampton who had completely imploded when the Rockies moved him. Securing such major cash considerations for a player like Thome who is only one season removed from greatness is truly a thing of beauty.
3) The key to repeating is understanding a World Series trophy in no way enhances a team's odds of winning games the next season. Certainly retaining talent from a championship club elevates the Sox's chances of winning well above those of the Devil Rays and Pirates of the world. However, the belief that the team is the favorite or even one of the top three of four contenders to win it all in '06 due simply to the hardware the players are now sporting can only serve to hurt the team. Like every other World Series victor before them, the White Sox would not have ended up on top without considerable luck. Immediately jumping to the conclusion that the organization would not benefit from change can only lead to failure because receiving identical baseball bounces in consecutive seasons is close to impossible. Winning the series does not mean the team lacked weaknesses or that there were not critical lessons to be learned from the team's performance throughout the season. As countless professional baseball writers have acknowledged before me, Williams' desire to improve the World Champions speaks volumes. While I believe his fearless aggressiveness has proven rash in the past, this eagerness to improve the roster figures to be highly effective with a roster full of "proven winners", many who have likely become overvalued at this point in time.
The Bad:
1) The White Sox parted with the organization's top two pitching prospects in a trade for a player the Phillies wanted to move so badly that they were willing to pay half of Thome's remaining salary. In conjunction with the Javier Vazquez trade which I discuss in my next entry, the club has now traded three of the top four players in my prospect hot list from last July. While the team's payroll certainly figures to be larger after winning a World Series, sustainable success will require the integration of successful homegrown talent into the lineup. This feat will certainly be difficult to achieve if the organization continues to part with 70% of the club's most promising prospects.
Admittedly, there are a few reasons that parting with Gonzalez and Haigwood may not be a huge blow to the farm system. First of all, pitching prospects tend to be dicey propositions at best. Fans are fond of reacting to the departure of a top flight prospect by responding "C'mon, how many of these so called 'can't miss' prospects actually succeed?" The reason for this attitude is the constant unpredictability of pitching prospects (sabermetricians are fond of the acronym TINSTAPP which stands for "there is no such thing as a pitching prospect"). The reason pitching prospects are notoriously unreliable is arm injuries. White Sox fans should understand this concept as well as any fans in baseball. Over the last four or five seasons the club has lost the following young pitchers to arm injuries: Jim Parque, Corwin Malone, Kris Honel, Jon Rauch, and Dan Wright. The only advanced pitching prospects who have failed to develop due solely to ineffectiveness that I can recall of off the top of my head are Aaron Myette, Matt Ginter, and Dennis Ulacia. As a 20 year old of slight build, Gonzalez is as susceptible to a debilitating arm injury as any young pitching prospect in the minors. At 6-2 and 200 pounds, and nearly two full years older than Gonzalez, Haigwood is less of an injury risk. However, despite the impressiveness of Haigwood's 2005 season, such dramatic progress is often followed a somewhat less impressive performance the next season (of course the frightening alternative is that Haigwood has simply turned the corner and is now on the fast track to the majors).
2) The White Sox lost a critical component of the club's league best defense in 2005. While the club's defense received considerable praise in the mainstream media, the majority of the team's success has been attributed to the starting pitching. Few have underscored the large degree to which the success of the starting pitching was a product of the stellar defense the Sox played throughout the field. Aaron Rowand is a legitimate gold glove contender and acted as a critical cog in the club's World Champion defense in '05. Clay Davenport's defensive metrics rate Rowand a spectacular 7 defensive runs (close to a full win) above average last season. While another positive aspect to this transaction is that the club has a suitable replacement waiting in the wings in Brian Anderson - who is also reputed to be an outstanding fielder - it is quite unfair and unreasonable to expect Anderson to match Rowand's exceptional defensive prowess in center field.
3) The acquisition of Jim Thome signals the departure of the greatest hitter in White Sox history. The resigning of Paul Konerko and the acquisition of Thome at DH eliminates any potential starting role for Frank Thomas in the 2006 lineup. The majority of my disdain over Thomas' departure may be the result of sentimentality. I can still recall attending one of Thomas' first games with the big league club as a seven year old and have lost track of the countless blissful moments I have experienced as a result of Big Frank's play over the years. Furthermore, while I figure to have another sixty years on this planet if my health holds up, I remain skeptical that I will ever witness a more potent hitter in a White Sox uniform. Personally, the hardest part of letting go of number 35 is that I virtually no doubt that Thomas can continue to produce at an All-Star caliber level, the only question remains his health. With Anderson, Young, and Owens waiting in the wings, the club would have been in the perfect position to sign Thomas to an incentive laden contract to stay with the club. If Frank remained healthy and posted his typical .300/.410/.530 line the team would have scored the best bargain of the offseason. If the Big Hurt's health failed him yet again, the club would be able to improve its defense further by moving Jermaine Dye to first base and adding a young, defensive minded, athletic young outfielder to the mix.
Since I find it impossible to withhold my ultimate take on the deal, here it is: securing Thome for three seasons at $8 million a year is a tremendous move which is mitigated by parting with the best player in the history of the franchise and dealing away two of the club's three best chances (with a nod to Lance Broadway) to develop someone to start alongside McCarthy for the long run. B-.
I would be remiss if I did not spend this rare entry discussing the most momentous White Sox transaction since at least the Scott Podsednik for Carlos Lee deal last offseason. In what is perhaps an attempt to be more diplomatic in my assessment of Kenny Williams' moves, I will proceed to address both the good and bad aspects of this trade. While, as usual, I have substantial concerns about this trade, there several highly admirable qualities of this maneuver for which Williams must be congratulated.
The Good:
1) Jim Thome has been a tremendous player throughout his career. It is highly encouraging to know that Williams appreciates Thome's skill set. With all the talk of small ball, grinders, and speed last season it is a massive relief that Kenny was able to both identify and properly value the club's weakness and Thome's strength: the ability to work the count. Overemphasizing Thome's strikeouts and mediocre batting average demonstrates an intense inability to read between the lines and understand the finer points of the game. Thome's career .408 on base percentage and .556 slugging percentage speak for themselves and leave no doubt the man has been one of the four or five best hitters in the game over the last decade. Admittedly, the gamble here is Thome's ability to bounce back from a trying, injury plagued season at age 35. Regardless of the outcome, however, the fact that Williams has displayed a genuine appreciation of his game is important.
2) Convincing a team to pay a player over 20 million dollars to be a member of a different team is highly impressive. Obtaining half a player's salary is a major feat even when you're dealing with someone like Mike Hampton who had completely imploded when the Rockies moved him. Securing such major cash considerations for a player like Thome who is only one season removed from greatness is truly a thing of beauty.
3) The key to repeating is understanding a World Series trophy in no way enhances a team's odds of winning games the next season. Certainly retaining talent from a championship club elevates the Sox's chances of winning well above those of the Devil Rays and Pirates of the world. However, the belief that the team is the favorite or even one of the top three of four contenders to win it all in '06 due simply to the hardware the players are now sporting can only serve to hurt the team. Like every other World Series victor before them, the White Sox would not have ended up on top without considerable luck. Immediately jumping to the conclusion that the organization would not benefit from change can only lead to failure because receiving identical baseball bounces in consecutive seasons is close to impossible. Winning the series does not mean the team lacked weaknesses or that there were not critical lessons to be learned from the team's performance throughout the season. As countless professional baseball writers have acknowledged before me, Williams' desire to improve the World Champions speaks volumes. While I believe his fearless aggressiveness has proven rash in the past, this eagerness to improve the roster figures to be highly effective with a roster full of "proven winners", many who have likely become overvalued at this point in time.
The Bad:
1) The White Sox parted with the organization's top two pitching prospects in a trade for a player the Phillies wanted to move so badly that they were willing to pay half of Thome's remaining salary. In conjunction with the Javier Vazquez trade which I discuss in my next entry, the club has now traded three of the top four players in my prospect hot list from last July. While the team's payroll certainly figures to be larger after winning a World Series, sustainable success will require the integration of successful homegrown talent into the lineup. This feat will certainly be difficult to achieve if the organization continues to part with 70% of the club's most promising prospects.
Admittedly, there are a few reasons that parting with Gonzalez and Haigwood may not be a huge blow to the farm system. First of all, pitching prospects tend to be dicey propositions at best. Fans are fond of reacting to the departure of a top flight prospect by responding "C'mon, how many of these so called 'can't miss' prospects actually succeed?" The reason for this attitude is the constant unpredictability of pitching prospects (sabermetricians are fond of the acronym TINSTAPP which stands for "there is no such thing as a pitching prospect"). The reason pitching prospects are notoriously unreliable is arm injuries. White Sox fans should understand this concept as well as any fans in baseball. Over the last four or five seasons the club has lost the following young pitchers to arm injuries: Jim Parque, Corwin Malone, Kris Honel, Jon Rauch, and Dan Wright. The only advanced pitching prospects who have failed to develop due solely to ineffectiveness that I can recall of off the top of my head are Aaron Myette, Matt Ginter, and Dennis Ulacia. As a 20 year old of slight build, Gonzalez is as susceptible to a debilitating arm injury as any young pitching prospect in the minors. At 6-2 and 200 pounds, and nearly two full years older than Gonzalez, Haigwood is less of an injury risk. However, despite the impressiveness of Haigwood's 2005 season, such dramatic progress is often followed a somewhat less impressive performance the next season (of course the frightening alternative is that Haigwood has simply turned the corner and is now on the fast track to the majors).
2) The White Sox lost a critical component of the club's league best defense in 2005. While the club's defense received considerable praise in the mainstream media, the majority of the team's success has been attributed to the starting pitching. Few have underscored the large degree to which the success of the starting pitching was a product of the stellar defense the Sox played throughout the field. Aaron Rowand is a legitimate gold glove contender and acted as a critical cog in the club's World Champion defense in '05. Clay Davenport's defensive metrics rate Rowand a spectacular 7 defensive runs (close to a full win) above average last season. While another positive aspect to this transaction is that the club has a suitable replacement waiting in the wings in Brian Anderson - who is also reputed to be an outstanding fielder - it is quite unfair and unreasonable to expect Anderson to match Rowand's exceptional defensive prowess in center field.
3) The acquisition of Jim Thome signals the departure of the greatest hitter in White Sox history. The resigning of Paul Konerko and the acquisition of Thome at DH eliminates any potential starting role for Frank Thomas in the 2006 lineup. The majority of my disdain over Thomas' departure may be the result of sentimentality. I can still recall attending one of Thomas' first games with the big league club as a seven year old and have lost track of the countless blissful moments I have experienced as a result of Big Frank's play over the years. Furthermore, while I figure to have another sixty years on this planet if my health holds up, I remain skeptical that I will ever witness a more potent hitter in a White Sox uniform. Personally, the hardest part of letting go of number 35 is that I virtually no doubt that Thomas can continue to produce at an All-Star caliber level, the only question remains his health. With Anderson, Young, and Owens waiting in the wings, the club would have been in the perfect position to sign Thomas to an incentive laden contract to stay with the club. If Frank remained healthy and posted his typical .300/.410/.530 line the team would have scored the best bargain of the offseason. If the Big Hurt's health failed him yet again, the club would be able to improve its defense further by moving Jermaine Dye to first base and adding a young, defensive minded, athletic young outfielder to the mix.
Since I find it impossible to withhold my ultimate take on the deal, here it is: securing Thome for three seasons at $8 million a year is a tremendous move which is mitigated by parting with the best player in the history of the franchise and dealing away two of the club's three best chances (with a nod to Lance Broadway) to develop someone to start alongside McCarthy for the long run. B-.
posted by Jeremy @ 6:38 PM
0 Comments:
Post a Comment
<< Home